Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 13, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris
Model pick: Hajduk Split (92%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.72 – 1.48
Total goals: 8.2
Over 2.5: 79%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hajduk Split | Žalgiris |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #3 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 45% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 2.6 |
*Hajduk Split shown at home, Žalgiris shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hajduk Split — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Žalgiris — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 43% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hajduk Split (home) | Žalgiris (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 5-3-3 in 11 (1.3 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 43% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Marko Livaja (8) | – |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.72 vs 1.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Žalgiris or draw (X2) | 5% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 97% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 23% |
| Žalgiris clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
92%. Hajduk Split are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 8.2, this shapes as an open game (79% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris — FAQ
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 92%. Full probabilities: Hajduk Split 92%, draw 4%, Žalgiris 3%.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris?
Expected goals are 6.72 for Hajduk Split and 1.48 for Žalgiris — about 8.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hajduk Split vs Žalgiris?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-1 (7%). Double chance for Hajduk Split or draw is 98%.