Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
Model pick: Hajduk Split (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.94 – 0.73
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hajduk Split | Istra 1961 |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #6 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 2.0 |
*Hajduk Split shown at home, Istra 1961 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hajduk Split — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Istra 1961 — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hajduk Split (home) | Istra 1961 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Marko Livaja (8) | Smail Prevljak (11) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.94 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Istra 1961 or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 48% |
| Istra 1961 clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Hajduk Split are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 — FAQ
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Hajduk Split 61%, draw 23%, Istra 1961 16%.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
Expected goals are 1.94 for Hajduk Split and 0.73 for Istra 1961 — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Hajduk Split or draw is 87%.