Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 31, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model pick: Hajduk Split (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.89
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hajduk Split | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Hajduk Split shown at home, Lokomotiva Zagreb shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hajduk Split — last 5
DWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiva Zagreb — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hajduk Split (home) | Lokomotiva Zagreb (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Marko Livaja (8) | Marko Pajac (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.89):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 41% |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Hajduk Split are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — FAQ
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Hajduk Split 63%, draw 22%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 16%.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Hajduk Split and 0.89 for Lokomotiva Zagreb — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hajduk Split vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Hajduk Split or draw is 84%.