Hajduk Split vs Osijek Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Hajduk Split vs Osijek
Model pick: Hajduk Split (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.9
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hajduk Split | Osijek |
|---|
| League position | #6 (4 pts) | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 4.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Hajduk Split shown at home, Osijek shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hajduk Split — last 5
LWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Osijek — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hajduk Split (home) | Osijek (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-0-0 in 2 (4.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Marko Livaja (8) | Simun Mikolcic (2) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Osijek or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 41% |
| Osijek clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Hajduk Split are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hajduk Split vs Osijek — FAQ
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Osijek?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Hajduk Split 52%, draw 26%, Osijek 22%.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Osijek?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hajduk Split vs Osijek?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Hajduk Split and 0.9 for Osijek — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hajduk Split vs Osijek?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Hajduk Split or draw is 80%.