Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 20, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa
Model pick: Draw (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 0.53
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 28%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hajduk Split | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|
| League position | #7 (1 pts) | #2 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Hajduk Split shown at home, Raków Częstochowa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hajduk Split — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hajduk Split (home) | Raków Częstochowa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Marko Livaja (8) | Jonatan Brunes (15) |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.01
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (27%) |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 61% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 59% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (72% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa — FAQ
Who will win Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Hajduk Split 37%, draw 39%, Raków Częstochowa 24%.
Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Hajduk Split and 0.53 for Raków Częstochowa — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (27%). Double chance for Hajduk Split or draw is 77%.