HamKam vs Aalesund Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
HamKam vs Aalesund
Model pick: HamKam (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| HamKam | Aalesund |
|---|
| League position | #8 (21 pts) | #14 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 71% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 3.2 |
*HamKam shown at home, Aalesund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
HamKam — last 5
DLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Aalesund — last 5
LDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | HamKam (home) | Aalesund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-2 in 7 (1.9 / 1.6 goals per game) | 1-2-3 in 6 (1.0 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — HamKam or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Aalesund or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| HamKam clean sheet | 37% |
| Aalesund clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
HamKam is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. HamKam are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ HamKam vs Aalesund — FAQ
Who will win HamKam vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model makes HamKam the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: HamKam 48%, draw 25%, Aalesund 27%.
Will both teams score in HamKam vs Aalesund?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in HamKam vs Aalesund?
Expected goals are 1.93 for HamKam and 1.0 for Aalesund — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in HamKam vs Aalesund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (10%). Double chance for HamKam or draw is 81%.