Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir
Model pick: Monastir (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.64 – 1.23
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hammam-Sousse | Monastir |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Hammam-Sousse shown at home, Monastir shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hammam-Sousse — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 32% of home games go over 2.5.
Monastir — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 49% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hammam-Sousse (home) | Monastir (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 49% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 34% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 33% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.64 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Hammam-Sousse or draw (1X) | 49% |
| Double chance — Monastir or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Hammam-Sousse clean sheet | 29% |
| Monastir clean sheet | 53% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Monastir is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Monastir edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir — FAQ
Who will win Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir?
Our statistical model makes Monastir the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Hammam-Sousse 21%, draw 31%, Monastir 48%.
Will both teams score in Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir?
Expected goals are 0.64 for Hammam-Sousse and 1.23 for Monastir — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hammam-Sousse vs Monastir?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Hammam-Sousse or draw is 49%.