Hammarby vs Häcken Prediction & Preview
Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ALLSVENSKAN (SWEDEN)
Hammarby vs Häcken
Model pick: Hammarby (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.11 – 1.15
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hammarby | Häcken |
|---|
| League position | #2 (27 pts) | #32 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.2 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Hammarby shown at home, Häcken shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hammarby — last 5
WWDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Häcken — last 5
LLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hammarby (home) | Häcken (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-1 in 8 (3.2 / 0.6 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.3 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 50% |
Allsvenskan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Allsvenskan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.11 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Hammarby or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Häcken or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Hammarby clean sheet | 32% |
| Häcken clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hammarby is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Hammarby are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hammarby vs Häcken — FAQ
Who will win Hammarby vs Häcken?
Our statistical model makes Hammarby the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Hammarby 60%, draw 21%, Häcken 19%.
Will both teams score in Hammarby vs Häcken?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hammarby vs Häcken?
Expected goals are 2.11 for Hammarby and 1.15 for Häcken — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hammarby vs Häcken?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Hammarby or draw is 80%.