Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 13, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa
Model pick: Draw (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.08 – 0.06
Total goals: 0.1
Over 2.5: 1%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hammarby | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|
| League position | #2 (27 pts) | #2 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.2 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Hammarby shown at home, Raków Częstochowa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hammarby — last 5
WDDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Raków Częstochowa — last 5
WLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hammarby (home) | Raków Częstochowa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-1 in 8 (3.2 / 0.6 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Jonatan Brunes (15) |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.08 vs 0.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (87%) |
| Double chance — Hammarby or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Raków Częstochowa or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 13% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Hammarby clean sheet | 94% |
| Raków Częstochowa clean sheet | 92% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (99% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa — FAQ
Who will win Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Hammarby 30%, draw 47%, Raków Częstochowa 23%.
Will both teams score in Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa?
Expected goals are 0.08 for Hammarby and 0.06 for Raków Częstochowa — about 0.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (87%). Double chance for Hammarby or draw is 95%.