Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II
Model pick: Hannover 96 II (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.91 – 0.81
Total goals: 4.7
Over 2.5: 73%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hannover 96 II | St. Pauli II |
|---|
| League position | #4 (11 pts) | #17 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 3.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
*Hannover 96 II shown at home, St. Pauli II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hannover 96 II — last 5
WWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 68% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Pauli II — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hannover 96 II (home) | St. Pauli II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (2.0 / 3.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 60% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.26
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.91 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Hannover 96 II or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — St. Pauli II or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 93% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Hannover 96 II clean sheet | 44% |
| St. Pauli II clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hannover 96 II is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Hannover 96 II are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.7, this shapes as an open game (73% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II — FAQ
Who will win Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II?
Our statistical model makes Hannover 96 II the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Hannover 96 II 85%, draw 10%, St. Pauli II 6%.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II?
Expected goals are 3.91 for Hannover 96 II and 0.81 for St. Pauli II — about 4.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hannover 96 II vs St. Pauli II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (9%). Double chance for Hannover 96 II or draw is 96%.