Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction & Preview
Ligat Al (Israel) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGAT AL (ISRAEL)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Model pick: Hapoel Be'er Sheva (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #36 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Hapoel Be'er Sheva shown at home, Maccabi Tel Aviv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hapoel Be'er Sheva — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Maccabi Tel Aviv — last 5
WWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hapoel Be'er Sheva (home) | Maccabi Tel Aviv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% |
Ligat Al (Israel) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligat Al (Israel) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva clean sheet | 25% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hapoel Be'er Sheva is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Hapoel Be'er Sheva are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — FAQ
Who will win Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Our statistical model makes Hapoel Be'er Sheva the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Hapoel Be'er Sheva 39%, draw 26%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 35%.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva and 1.4 for Maccabi Tel Aviv — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Hapoel Be'er Sheva or draw is 64%.