Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction & Preview
Ligat Al (Israel) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGAT AL (ISRAEL)
Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Model pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.78 – 1.8
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hapoel Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #36 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.0 |
*Hapoel Jerusalem shown at home, Maccabi Tel Aviv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hapoel Jerusalem — last 5
WLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Maccabi Tel Aviv — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hapoel Jerusalem (home) | Maccabi Tel Aviv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-3 in 4 (0.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 53% |
Ligat Al (Israel) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligat Al (Israel) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.78 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Hapoel Jerusalem or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Hapoel Jerusalem clean sheet | 17% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet | 46% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maccabi Tel Aviv is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Maccabi Tel Aviv edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — FAQ
Who will win Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Our statistical model makes Maccabi Tel Aviv the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Hapoel Jerusalem 18%, draw 24%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 58%.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Expected goals are 0.78 for Hapoel Jerusalem and 1.8 for Maccabi Tel Aviv — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Hapoel Jerusalem or draw is 38%.