Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta Prediction & Preview
Europa Conference League (Europe) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta
Model pick: Atalanta (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.11 – 0.06
Total goals: 0.2
Over 2.5: 2%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | Atalanta |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #15 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Hapoel Tel Aviv shown at home, Atalanta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hapoel Tel Aviv — last 5
DWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Atalanta — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hapoel Tel Aviv (home) | Atalanta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 2-0-2 in 4 (1.0 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 55% |
Europa Conference League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Europa Conference League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.11 vs 0.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (84%) |
| Double chance — Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Atalanta or draw (X2) | 90% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 15% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 0% / 100% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet | 94% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 90% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atalanta is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Atalanta edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (98% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta — FAQ
Who will win Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model makes Atalanta the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Hapoel Tel Aviv 15%, draw 42%, Atalanta 44%.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta?
Expected goals are 0.11 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.06 for Atalanta — about 0.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (84%). Double chance for Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw is 95%.