Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem Prediction & Preview
Ligat Al (Israel) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGAT AL (ISRAEL)
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem
Model pick: Beitar Jerusalem (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.41
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | Beitar Jerusalem |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Hapoel Tel Aviv shown at home, Beitar Jerusalem shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hapoel Tel Aviv — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Beitar Jerusalem — last 5
LWDLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hapoel Tel Aviv (home) | Beitar Jerusalem (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% |
Ligat Al (Israel) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.54
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Ligat Al (Israel) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.41):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Beitar Jerusalem or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Hapoel Tel Aviv clean sheet | 24% |
| Beitar Jerusalem clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beitar Jerusalem is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Beitar Jerusalem edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem — FAQ
Who will win Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem?
Our statistical model makes Beitar Jerusalem the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Hapoel Tel Aviv 34%, draw 27%, Beitar Jerusalem 39%.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.41 for Beitar Jerusalem — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Hapoel Tel Aviv or draw is 59%.