Hartberg vs Austria Wien Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Hartberg vs Austria Wien
Model pick: Austria Wien (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.27 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hartberg | Austria Wien |
|---|
| League position | #11 (0 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Hartberg shown at home, Austria Wien shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hartberg — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Austria Wien — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hartberg (home) | Austria Wien (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.27 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Hartberg or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Austria Wien or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Hartberg clean sheet | 28% |
| Austria Wien clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Austria Wien is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Austria Wien edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hartberg vs Austria Wien — FAQ
Who will win Hartberg vs Austria Wien?
Our statistical model makes Austria Wien the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Hartberg 31%, draw 28%, Austria Wien 41%.
Will both teams score in Hartberg vs Austria Wien?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hartberg vs Austria Wien?
Expected goals are 1.27 for Hartberg and 1.29 for Austria Wien — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hartberg vs Austria Wien?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Hartberg or draw is 63%.