Hartberg vs Ried Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Hartberg vs Ried
Model pick: Hartberg (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.02
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hartberg | Ried |
|---|
| League position | #10 (3 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Hartberg shown at home, Ried shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hartberg — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Ried — last 5
WDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hartberg (home) | Ried (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 47% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Hartberg or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Ried or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Hartberg clean sheet | 36% |
| Ried clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hartberg is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Hartberg are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Hartberg vs Ried — FAQ
Who will win Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model makes Hartberg the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Hartberg 36%, draw 28%, Ried 36%.
Will both teams score in Hartberg vs Ried?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hartberg vs Ried?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Hartberg and 1.02 for Ried — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hartberg vs Ried?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Hartberg or draw is 73%.