Haugesund vs Raufoss Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Haugesund vs Raufoss
Model pick: Haugesund (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.0 – 1.61
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 65%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Haugesund | Raufoss |
|---|
| League position | #1 (34 pts) | #14 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 2.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 71% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 3.0 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Haugesund shown at home, Raufoss shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Haugesund — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Raufoss — last 5
LDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Haugesund (home) | Raufoss (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-1 in 7 (2.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 2-0-6 in 8 (0.9 / 2.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 66% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.0 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Haugesund or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Raufoss or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Haugesund clean sheet | 20% |
| Raufoss clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Haugesund is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Haugesund are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Haugesund vs Raufoss — FAQ
Who will win Haugesund vs Raufoss?
Our statistical model makes Haugesund the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Haugesund 67%, draw 18%, Raufoss 16%.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Raufoss?
The model gives a 65% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Haugesund vs Raufoss?
Expected goals are 3.0 for Haugesund and 1.61 for Raufoss — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Haugesund vs Raufoss?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (7%). Double chance for Haugesund or draw is 82%.