Haugesund vs Sogndal Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Haugesund vs Sogndal
Model pick: Haugesund (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.64 – 1.6
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 66%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Haugesund | Sogndal |
|---|
| League position | #1 (43 pts) | #12 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 10% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.0 / 2.2 | 3.0 / 1.2 |
*Haugesund shown at home, Sogndal shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Haugesund — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Sogndal — last 5
WLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Haugesund (home) | Sogndal (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-1 in 9 (3.2 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-3-6 in 10 (1.4 / 2.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.64 vs 1.6):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — Haugesund or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Sogndal or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Haugesund clean sheet | 20% |
| Sogndal clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Haugesund is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Haugesund are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Haugesund vs Sogndal — FAQ
Who will win Haugesund vs Sogndal?
Our statistical model makes Haugesund the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Haugesund 70%, draw 15%, Sogndal 15%.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sogndal?
The model gives a 66% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Haugesund vs Sogndal?
Expected goals are 3.64 for Haugesund and 1.6 for Sogndal — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Haugesund vs Sogndal?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (7%). Double chance for Haugesund or draw is 87%.