Hearts vs Dundee Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Hearts vs Dundee
Model pick: Hearts (62%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.16 – 0.87
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hearts | Dundee |
|---|
| League position | #3 (6 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Hearts shown at home, Dundee shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hearts — last 5
DWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Dundee — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hearts (home) | Dundee (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% |
| Top scorer | Claudio Braga (14) | Simon Murray (7) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.16 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Hearts or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Dundee or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Hearts clean sheet | 42% |
| Dundee clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hearts is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Hearts are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Hearts vs Dundee — FAQ
Who will win Hearts vs Dundee?
Our statistical model makes Hearts the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Hearts 62%, draw 22%, Dundee 16%.
Will both teams score in Hearts vs Dundee?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hearts vs Dundee?
Expected goals are 2.16 for Hearts and 0.87 for Dundee — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hearts vs Dundee?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Hearts or draw is 86%.