Hearts vs St. Johnstone Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Hearts vs St. Johnstone
Model pick: Hearts (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.96 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hearts | St. Johnstone |
|---|
| League position | #5 (3 pts) | #6 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Hearts shown at home, St. Johnstone shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hearts — last 5
LWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Johnstone — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hearts (home) | St. Johnstone (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Claudio Braga (14) | – |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.96 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Hearts or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — St. Johnstone or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Hearts clean sheet | 52% |
| St. Johnstone clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hearts is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Hearts are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Hearts vs St. Johnstone — FAQ
Who will win Hearts vs St. Johnstone?
Our statistical model makes Hearts the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Hearts 58%, draw 24%, St. Johnstone 19%.
Will both teams score in Hearts vs St. Johnstone?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hearts vs St. Johnstone?
Expected goals are 1.96 for Hearts and 0.65 for St. Johnstone — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hearts vs St. Johnstone?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Hearts or draw is 89%.