Heerenveen vs AZ Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Heerenveen vs AZ
Model pick: AZ (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.81
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Heerenveen | AZ |
|---|
| League position | #11 (5 pts) | #14 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
*Heerenveen shown at home, AZ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Heerenveen — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
AZ — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Heerenveen (home) | AZ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Jacob Trenskow (2) | Troy Parrott (1) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Heerenveen or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — AZ or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 16% |
| AZ clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AZ is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, AZ edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Heerenveen vs AZ — FAQ
Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ?
Our statistical model makes AZ the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Heerenveen 29%, draw 24%, AZ 46%.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Heerenveen vs AZ?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Heerenveen and 1.81 for AZ — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Heerenveen vs AZ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Heerenveen or draw is 51%.