Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
Model pick: Heerenveen (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.19
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
*Heerenveen shown at home, PEC Zwolle shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Heerenveen — last 5
WDWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
PEC Zwolle — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Heerenveen (home) | PEC Zwolle (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Jacob Trenskow (2) | – |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Heerenveen or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — PEC Zwolle or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 30% |
| PEC Zwolle clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Heerenveen is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Heerenveen are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle — FAQ
Who will win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model makes Heerenveen the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Heerenveen 51%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 25%.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Heerenveen and 1.19 for PEC Zwolle — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Heerenveen or draw is 77%.