Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Prediction & Preview
A Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 15:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A LYGA (LITHUANIA)
Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys
Model pick: Hegelmann Litauen (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hegelmann Litauen | Panevėžys |
|---|
| League position | #8 (24 pts) | #7 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 15% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Hegelmann Litauen shown at home, Panevėžys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hegelmann Litauen — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Panevėžys — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hegelmann Litauen (home) | Panevėžys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-8-3 in 13 (1.3 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-0-10 in 13 (0.7 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% |
A Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.64
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 47%
Use these A Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.46 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Hegelmann Litauen or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Panevėžys or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Hegelmann Litauen clean sheet | 29% |
| Panevėžys clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hegelmann Litauen is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Hegelmann Litauen are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys — FAQ
Who will win Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys?
Our statistical model makes Hegelmann Litauen the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Hegelmann Litauen 41%, draw 27%, Panevėžys 32%.
Will both teams score in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys?
Expected goals are 1.46 for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.24 for Panevėžys — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Hegelmann Litauen or draw is 68%.