Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 10:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap
Model pick: De Graafschap (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.65
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Helmond Sport | De Graafschap |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
*Helmond Sport shown at home, De Graafschap shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Helmond Sport — last 5
LDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
De Graafschap — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Helmond Sport (home) | De Graafschap (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.14
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Helmond Sport or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — De Graafschap or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Helmond Sport clean sheet | 19% |
| De Graafschap clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
De Graafschap is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, De Graafschap edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap — FAQ
Who will win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model makes De Graafschap the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Helmond Sport 29%, draw 26%, De Graafschap 46%.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Helmond Sport and 1.65 for De Graafschap — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Helmond Sport or draw is 52%.