Helsingborg vs Värnamo Prediction & Preview
Superettan (Sweden) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPERETTAN (SWEDEN)
Helsingborg vs Värnamo
Model pick: Helsingborg (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Helsingborg | Värnamo |
|---|
| League position | #9 (24 pts) | #15 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 2.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Helsingborg shown at home, Värnamo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Helsingborg — last 5
WLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Värnamo — last 5
LLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Helsingborg (home) | Värnamo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.9 / 1.7 goals per game) | 2-0-7 in 9 (1.1 / 2.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Ervin Gigovic (2) | Axel Bjornstrom (2) |
Superettan (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Superettan (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Helsingborg or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Värnamo or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Helsingborg clean sheet | 31% |
| Värnamo clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Helsingborg is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Helsingborg are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Helsingborg vs Värnamo — FAQ
Who will win Helsingborg vs Värnamo?
Our statistical model makes Helsingborg the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Helsingborg 43%, draw 26%, Värnamo 31%.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Värnamo?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Helsingborg vs Värnamo?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Helsingborg and 1.18 for Värnamo — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Helsingborg vs Värnamo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Helsingborg or draw is 68%.