Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Model pick: Chengdu Rongcheng (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Henan Jianye | Chengdu Rongcheng |
|---|
| League position | #12 (25 pts) | #1 (51 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 58% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Henan Jianye shown at home, Chengdu Rongcheng shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Henan Jianye — last 5
DDLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Chengdu Rongcheng — last 5
DLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Henan Jianye (home) | Chengdu Rongcheng (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-4-4 in 12 (1.3 / 1.1 goals per game) | 7-3-2 in 12 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Gustavo (12) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Chengdu Rongcheng or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 22% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chengdu Rongcheng is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Chengdu Rongcheng edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng — FAQ
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
Our statistical model makes Chengdu Rongcheng the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Henan Jianye 33%, draw 27%, Chengdu Rongcheng 40%.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Henan Jianye and 1.53 for Chengdu Rongcheng — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Henan Jianye vs Chengdu Rongcheng?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Henan Jianye or draw is 54%.