Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong
Model pick: Henan Jianye (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
17%
Chongqing Tonglianglong
Expected goals: 1.55 – 0.54
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Henan Jianye | Chongqing Tonglianglong |
|---|
| League position | #13 (24 pts) | #7 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
*Henan Jianye shown at home, Chongqing Tonglianglong shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Henan Jianye — last 5
WDDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Chongqing Tonglianglong — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 20% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Henan Jianye (home) | Chongqing Tonglianglong (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-4-5 in 12 (0.8 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 20% |
| Top scorer | Nazario Bruno (8) | – |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 0.54):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Chongqing Tonglianglong or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 58% |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Henan Jianye is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Henan Jianye are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong — FAQ
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Our statistical model makes Henan Jianye the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Henan Jianye 58%, draw 25%, Chongqing Tonglianglong 17%.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Henan Jianye and 0.54 for Chongqing Tonglianglong — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tonglianglong?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Henan Jianye or draw is 87%.