Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction & Preview
Super League (China) · Jul 31, 2026 · kickoff 11:35 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LEAGUE (CHINA)
Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo
Model pick: Henan Jianye (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Henan Jianye | Dalian Yingbo |
|---|
| League position | #12 (18 pts) | #3 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Henan Jianye shown at home, Dalian Yingbo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Henan Jianye — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Dalian Yingbo — last 5
DLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 6% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Henan Jianye (home) | Dalian Yingbo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-4 in 9 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-1-5 in 8 (1.1 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 6% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Nazario Bruno (7) | Cephas Malele (8) |
Super League (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Super League (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Henan Jianye or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Dalian Yingbo or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Henan Jianye clean sheet | 35% |
| Dalian Yingbo clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Henan Jianye is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Henan Jianye are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo — FAQ
Who will win Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo?
Our statistical model makes Henan Jianye the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Henan Jianye 47%, draw 26%, Dalian Yingbo 26%.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Henan Jianye and 1.04 for Dalian Yingbo — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Henan Jianye vs Dalian Yingbo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Henan Jianye or draw is 75%.