Heracles vs De Graafschap Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Heracles vs De Graafschap
Model pick: Heracles (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.82 – 1.38
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 68%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Heracles | De Graafschap |
|---|
| League position | #18 (19 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.6 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 3.4 |
*Heracles shown at home, De Graafschap shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Heracles — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
De Graafschap — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Heracles (home) | De Graafschap (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.82 vs 1.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Heracles or draw (1X) | 84% |
| Double chance — De Graafschap or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 60% / 40% |
| Heracles clean sheet | 25% |
| De Graafschap clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Heracles is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Heracles are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (68% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Heracles vs De Graafschap — FAQ
Who will win Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model makes Heracles the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Heracles 63%, draw 19%, De Graafschap 19%.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
Expected goals are 2.82 for Heracles and 1.38 for De Graafschap — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Heracles vs De Graafschap?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for Heracles or draw is 84%.