Herediano vs Alajuelense Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Herediano vs Alajuelense
Model pick: Herediano (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Herediano | Alajuelense |
|---|
| League position | #5 (2 pts) | #2 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Herediano shown at home, Alajuelense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Herediano — last 5
WWDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Alajuelense — last 5
LLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Herediano (home) | Alajuelense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Santiago van der Putten (1) |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Herediano or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Alajuelense or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Herediano clean sheet | 39% |
| Alajuelense clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Herediano is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Herediano are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Herediano vs Alajuelense — FAQ
Who will win Herediano vs Alajuelense?
Our statistical model makes Herediano the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Herediano 40%, draw 30%, Alajuelense 30%.
Will both teams score in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Herediano and 0.95 for Alajuelense — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Herediano vs Alajuelense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Herediano or draw is 70%.