Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón
Model pick: Herediano (63%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.94 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Herediano | Pérez Zeledón |
|---|
| League position | #9 (4 pts) | #7 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 0.3 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
*Herediano shown at home, Pérez Zeledón shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Herediano — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Pérez Zeledón — last 5
WDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Herediano (home) | Pérez Zeledón (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.3 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.94 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Herediano or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Pérez Zeledón or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Herediano clean sheet | 52% |
| Pérez Zeledón clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Herediano is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Herediano are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón — FAQ
Who will win Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón?
Our statistical model makes Herediano the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Herediano 63%, draw 23%, Pérez Zeledón 14%.
Will both teams score in Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón?
Expected goals are 1.94 for Herediano and 0.65 for Pérez Zeledón — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Herediano vs Pérez Zeledón?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Herediano or draw is 88%.