Herediano vs Sporting San José Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Herediano vs Sporting San José
Model pick: Herediano (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Herediano | Sporting San José |
|---|
| League position | #6 (4 pts) | #9 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 2.0 |
*Herediano shown at home, Sporting San José shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Herediano — last 5
DDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Sporting San José — last 5
LDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Herediano (home) | Sporting San José (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 52% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.7
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Herediano or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Sporting San José or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Herediano clean sheet | 50% |
| Sporting San José clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Herediano is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Herediano are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Herediano vs Sporting San José — FAQ
Who will win Herediano vs Sporting San José?
Our statistical model makes Herediano the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Herediano 56%, draw 26%, Sporting San José 18%.
Will both teams score in Herediano vs Sporting San José?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Herediano vs Sporting San José?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Herediano and 0.69 for Sporting San José — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Herediano vs Sporting San José?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Herediano or draw is 85%.