Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica
Model pick: Hetman Zamosc (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.79
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hetman Zamosc | Moravia Morawica |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Hetman Zamosc shown at home, Moravia Morawica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hetman Zamosc — last 5
DWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Moravia Morawica — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hetman Zamosc (home) | Moravia Morawica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 1.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Hetman Zamosc or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Moravia Morawica or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Hetman Zamosc clean sheet | 17% |
| Moravia Morawica clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hetman Zamosc is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Hetman Zamosc are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica — FAQ
Who will win Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica?
Our statistical model makes Hetman Zamosc the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Hetman Zamosc 40%, draw 23%, Moravia Morawica 37%.
Will both teams score in Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Hetman Zamosc and 1.79 for Moravia Morawica — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hetman Zamosc vs Moravia Morawica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Hetman Zamosc or draw is 62%.