Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice
Model pick: Star Starachowice (100%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.52 – 15.34
Total goals: 15.9
Over 2.5: 23%
Both teams score: 20%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hetman Zamosc | Star Starachowice |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Hetman Zamosc shown at home, Star Starachowice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hetman Zamosc — last 5
WLDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Star Starachowice — last 5
DWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hetman Zamosc (home) | Star Starachowice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.52 vs 15.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-8 (31%) |
| Double chance — Hetman Zamosc or draw (1X) | 0% |
| Double chance — Star Starachowice or draw (X2) | 100% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 100% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Hetman Zamosc clean sheet | 0% |
| Star Starachowice clean sheet | 59% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Star Starachowice is the model's most likely outcome at
100%. Despite playing away, Star Starachowice edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (77% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice — FAQ
Who will win Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice?
Our statistical model makes Star Starachowice the most likely result at 100%. Full probabilities: Hetman Zamosc 0%, draw 0%, Star Starachowice 100%.
Will both teams score in Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice?
The model gives a 20% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice?
Expected goals are 0.52 for Hetman Zamosc and 15.34 for Star Starachowice — about 15.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hetman Zamosc vs Star Starachowice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-8 (31%). Double chance for Hetman Zamosc or draw is 0%.