Hibernian vs Hearts Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Hibernian vs Hearts
Model pick: Hibernian (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hibernian | Hearts |
|---|
| League position | #7 (3 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 3.2 / 1.4 |
*Hibernian shown at home, Hearts shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hibernian — last 5
WDWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Hearts — last 5
WDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hibernian (home) | Hearts (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 52% |
| Top scorer | – | Claudio Braga (14) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.35 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Hibernian or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Hearts or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Hibernian clean sheet | 28% |
| Hearts clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hibernian is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Hibernian are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hibernian vs Hearts — FAQ
Who will win Hibernian vs Hearts?
Our statistical model makes Hibernian the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Hibernian 38%, draw 27%, Hearts 35%.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Hearts?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hibernian vs Hearts?
Expected goals are 1.35 for Hibernian and 1.26 for Hearts — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hibernian vs Hearts?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Hibernian or draw is 65%.