Hibernian vs Kilmarnock Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock
Model pick: Hibernian (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.0 – 0.98
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hibernian | Kilmarnock |
|---|
| League position | #7 (3 pts) | #12 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*Hibernian shown at home, Kilmarnock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hibernian — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Kilmarnock — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hibernian (home) | Kilmarnock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (3.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Tyreece John-Jules (8) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.0 vs 0.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Hibernian or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Kilmarnock or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Hibernian clean sheet | 38% |
| Kilmarnock clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hibernian is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Hibernian are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hibernian vs Kilmarnock — FAQ
Who will win Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Our statistical model makes Hibernian the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Hibernian 57%, draw 24%, Kilmarnock 19%.
Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Expected goals are 2.0 for Hibernian and 0.98 for Kilmarnock — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (10%). Double chance for Hibernian or draw is 82%.