HJK vs TPS Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
HJK vs TPS
Model pick: HJK (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.37 – 1.32
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| HJK | TPS |
|---|
| League position | #5 (25 pts) | #8 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*HJK shown at home, TPS shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
HJK — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
TPS — last 5
WWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 10% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | HJK (home) | TPS (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-2 in 8 (1.5 / 1.4 goals per game) | 0-3-4 in 7 (0.7 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 65% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.37 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — HJK or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — TPS or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| HJK clean sheet | 27% |
| TPS clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
HJK is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. HJK are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ HJK vs TPS — FAQ
Who will win HJK vs TPS?
Our statistical model makes HJK the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: HJK 57%, draw 21%, TPS 22%.
Will both teams score in HJK vs TPS?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in HJK vs TPS?
Expected goals are 2.37 for HJK and 1.32 for TPS — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in HJK vs TPS?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for HJK or draw is 80%.