HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split
Model pick: Hajduk Split (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.61
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| HNK Gorica | Hajduk Split |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*HNK Gorica shown at home, Hajduk Split shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
HNK Gorica — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Hajduk Split — last 5
WLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | HNK Gorica (home) | Hajduk Split (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Jurica Prsir (4) | Marko Livaja (8) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.95 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — HNK Gorica or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Hajduk Split or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| HNK Gorica clean sheet | 20% |
| Hajduk Split clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hajduk Split is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Hajduk Split edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split — FAQ
Who will win HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
Our statistical model makes Hajduk Split the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: HNK Gorica 24%, draw 26%, Hajduk Split 50%.
Will both teams score in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
Expected goals are 0.95 for HNK Gorica and 1.61 for Hajduk Split — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in HNK Gorica vs Hajduk Split?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for HNK Gorica or draw is 47%.