Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock
Model pick: Hansa Rostock (51%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.94
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hoffenheim II | Hansa Rostock |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Hoffenheim II shown at home, Hansa Rostock shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hoffenheim II — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Hansa Rostock — last 5
DWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hoffenheim II (home) | Hansa Rostock (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Deniz Zeitler (11) | – |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 1.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Hoffenheim II or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Hansa Rostock or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Hoffenheim II clean sheet | 14% |
| Hansa Rostock clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hansa Rostock is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Hansa Rostock edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock — FAQ
Who will win Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model makes Hansa Rostock the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Hoffenheim II 26%, draw 23%, Hansa Rostock 51%.
Will both teams score in Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Hoffenheim II and 1.94 for Hansa Rostock — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hoffenheim II vs Hansa Rostock?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Hoffenheim II or draw is 51%.