Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg
Model pick: Jahn Regensburg (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.62
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hoffenheim II | Jahn Regensburg |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 3.0 | 5.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Hoffenheim II shown at home, Jahn Regensburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hoffenheim II — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Jahn Regensburg — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hoffenheim II (home) | Jahn Regensburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (5.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Deniz Zeitler (11) | – |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 1.62):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Hoffenheim II or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Jahn Regensburg or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Hoffenheim II clean sheet | 20% |
| Jahn Regensburg clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jahn Regensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Jahn Regensburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg — FAQ
Who will win Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model makes Jahn Regensburg the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Hoffenheim II 36%, draw 25%, Jahn Regensburg 39%.
Will both teams score in Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Hoffenheim II and 1.62 for Jahn Regensburg — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Hoffenheim II or draw is 63%.