Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA 2 (GERMANY)
Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
Model pick: Holstein Kiel (39%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli |
|---|
| League position | #5 (1 pts) | #18 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Holstein Kiel shown at home, St. Pauli shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Holstein Kiel — last 5
WDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Pauli — last 5
WWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Holstein Kiel (home) | St. Pauli (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Phil Harres (10) | – |
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Bundesliga 2 (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Holstein Kiel or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — St. Pauli or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Holstein Kiel clean sheet | 26% |
| St. Pauli clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Holstein Kiel is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Holstein Kiel are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli — FAQ
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?
Our statistical model makes Holstein Kiel the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Holstein Kiel 39%, draw 26%, St. Pauli 34%.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Holstein Kiel and 1.33 for St. Pauli — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Holstein Kiel or draw is 65%.