Honvéd vs Vasas Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Honvéd vs Vasas
Model pick: Honvéd (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Honvéd | Vasas |
|---|
| League position | #10 (2 pts) | #3 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 3.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Honvéd shown at home, Vasas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Honvéd — last 5
WWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasas — last 5
WWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Honvéd (home) | Vasas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (3.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 53% |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Honvéd or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Vasas or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Honvéd clean sheet | 38% |
| Vasas clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Honvéd is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Honvéd are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Honvéd vs Vasas — FAQ
Who will win Honvéd vs Vasas?
Our statistical model makes Honvéd the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Honvéd 39%, draw 30%, Vasas 31%.
Will both teams score in Honvéd vs Vasas?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Honvéd vs Vasas?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Honvéd and 0.96 for Vasas — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Honvéd vs Vasas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Honvéd or draw is 70%.