Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes
Model pick: Houston Dynamo (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.1
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Houston Dynamo | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #2 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.9 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 71% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.0 / 2.8 |
*Houston Dynamo shown at home, SJ Earthquakes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Houston Dynamo — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Houston Dynamo (home) | SJ Earthquakes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-2 in 7 (1.1 / 0.9 goals per game) | 6-1-1 in 8 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 66% |
| Top scorer | Guilherme (11) | Preston Judd (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Houston Dynamo or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Houston Dynamo clean sheet | 33% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Houston Dynamo is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Houston Dynamo are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes — FAQ
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
Our statistical model makes Houston Dynamo the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Houston Dynamo 54%, draw 24%, SJ Earthquakes 22%.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Houston Dynamo and 1.1 for SJ Earthquakes — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Houston Dynamo or draw is 78%.