Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
Model pick: Hradec Králové (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hradec Králové | Baník Ostrava |
|---|
| League position | #6 (4 pts) | #9 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Hradec Králové shown at home, Baník Ostrava shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hradec Králové — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Baník Ostrava — last 5
DLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hradec Králové (home) | Baník Ostrava (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Vladimir Darida (5) | – |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Hradec Králové or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Baník Ostrava or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Hradec Králové clean sheet | 38% |
| Baník Ostrava clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hradec Králové is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Hradec Králové are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava — FAQ
Who will win Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model makes Hradec Králové the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Hradec Králové 44%, draw 29%, Baník Ostrava 27%.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Hradec Králové and 0.96 for Baník Ostrava — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Hradec Králové or draw is 73%.