Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha
Model pick: Sparta Praha (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.46
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hradec Králové | Sparta Praha |
|---|
| League position | #10 (7 pts) | #7 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Hradec Králové shown at home, Sparta Praha shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hradec Králové — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Sparta Praha — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hradec Králové (home) | Sparta Praha (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Vladimir Darida (5) | Lukas Haraslin (12) |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Hradec Králové or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Sparta Praha or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Hradec Králové clean sheet | 23% |
| Sparta Praha clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sparta Praha is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Despite playing away, Sparta Praha edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha — FAQ
Who will win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model makes Sparta Praha the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Hradec Králové 30%, draw 27%, Sparta Praha 43%.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Hradec Králové and 1.46 for Sparta Praha — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Hradec Králové or draw is 56%.