Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction & Preview
PL · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Hull City vs Aston Villa
Model pick: Aston Villa (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.49
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Hull City | Aston Villa |
|---|
| League position | #6 (73 pts) | #17 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.0 / 4.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Hull City shown at home, Aston Villa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Hull City — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Aston Villa — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Hull City (home) | Aston Villa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 4.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 50% |
| Top scorer | – | John McGinn (5) |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.49):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Hull City or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Aston Villa or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Hull City clean sheet | 23% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aston Villa is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Aston Villa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Hull City vs Aston Villa — FAQ
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model makes Aston Villa the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Hull City 26%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 48%.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Hull City and 1.49 for Aston Villa — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Hull City or draw is 56%.