Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük
Model pick: Iğdır FK (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Iğdır FK | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|
| League position | #20 (0 pts) | #18 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Iğdır FK shown at home, Fatih Karagümrük shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Iğdır FK — last 5
LWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Fatih Karagümrük — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Iğdır FK (home) | Fatih Karagümrük (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 2-3-12 in 17 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Lois Diony (15) | – |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Iğdır FK or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Fatih Karagümrük or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Iğdır FK clean sheet | 34% |
| Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Iğdır FK is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Iğdır FK are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük — FAQ
Who will win Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model makes Iğdır FK the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Iğdır FK 39%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 33%.
Will both teams score in Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Iğdır FK and 1.08 for Fatih Karagümrük — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Iğdır FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Iğdır FK or draw is 66%.