İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
Model pick: İstanbulspor (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| İstanbulspor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|
| League position | #19 (1 pts) | #18 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*İstanbulspor shown at home, Fatih Karagümrük shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
İstanbulspor — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Fatih Karagümrük — last 5
WWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | İstanbulspor (home) | Fatih Karagümrük (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-3-12 in 17 (0.8 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Tanque Douglas (8) | – |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — İstanbulspor or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Fatih Karagümrük or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| İstanbulspor clean sheet | 30% |
| Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
İstanbulspor is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. İstanbulspor are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — FAQ
Who will win İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model makes İstanbulspor the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: İstanbulspor 39%, draw 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 34%.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Expected goals are 1.32 for İstanbulspor and 1.2 for Fatih Karagümrük — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for İstanbulspor or draw is 66%.