IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor
Model pick: Friska Viljor (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.91 – 3.33
Total goals: 4.2
Over 2.5: 69%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| IFK Umea | Friska Viljor |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #5 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 3.0 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.5 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*IFK Umea shown at home, Friska Viljor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
IFK Umea — last 5
LLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Friska Viljor — last 5
DWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | IFK Umea (home) | Friska Viljor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-5 in 6 (0.8 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-3-2 in 6 (1.5 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.33
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.91 vs 3.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-3 (9%) |
| Double chance — IFK Umea or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Friska Viljor or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 92% / 8% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| IFK Umea clean sheet | 4% |
| Friska Viljor clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Friska Viljor is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Friska Viljor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.2, this shapes as an open game (69% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor — FAQ
Who will win IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor?
Our statistical model makes Friska Viljor the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: IFK Umea 9%, draw 13%, Friska Viljor 78%.
Will both teams score in IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor?
Expected goals are 0.91 for IFK Umea and 3.33 for Friska Viljor — about 4.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in IFK Umea vs Friska Viljor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-3 (9%). Double chance for IFK Umea or draw is 17%.