IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi
Model pick: Draw (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.74 – 0.55
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 27%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| IFK Umea | Umea FC Akademi |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #5 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 3.0 | 1.3 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 2.5 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
*IFK Umea shown at home, Umea FC Akademi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
IFK Umea — last 5
LL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Umea FC Akademi — last 5
DL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | IFK Umea (home) | Umea FC Akademi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-5 in 6 (0.8 / 3.0 goals per game) | 1-2-3 in 6 (1.3 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.74 vs 0.55):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (28%) |
| Double chance — IFK Umea or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Umea FC Akademi or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 60% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| IFK Umea clean sheet | 58% |
| Umea FC Akademi clean sheet | 48% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (73% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi — FAQ
Who will win IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: IFK Umea 36%, draw 39%, Umea FC Akademi 25%.
Will both teams score in IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi?
Expected goals are 0.74 for IFK Umea and 0.55 for Umea FC Akademi — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in IFK Umea vs Umea FC Akademi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (28%). Double chance for IFK Umea or draw is 76%.